The U.S. retail sector is proving a difficult landscape to navigate as competing forces jostle for dominance. Tailwinds from a strong U.S. economy are up against the e-commerce headwind, as well as department store malaise and industry consolidation. This paper quantifies both tailwinds and headwinds across the sector, and which force is strongest. Our results show that despite the headwinds, a consolidated retail sector can look forward to robust growth over the coming 10 years.
Current debate on the sector tends to be partial in focus, concentrating on single aspects of the narrative, one-at-a-time, without tying the disparate strands together into a complete picture. In our research, we draw together the macro-and sector-specific trends that are impacting the retail sector, and specifically, the prospects for sales from U.S. shopping malls.
Read the full rhetoric vs reality paper.
A fine balancing act